Famine in Sudan: Key Facts and Projections

The UNHCR and UNICEF issued a joint statement two days ago on famine in Sudan, Here are some key statistics:

13 million people in Sudan face acute food insecurity.
Zamzam camp in North Darfur has already confirmed famine conditions.
3.7 million children under five are projected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition in 2024.
Children with severe malnutrition are 11 times more likely to die from preventable diseases.
14 regions are nearing famine conditions.
11 million people have been displaced within and across Sudanese borders.

Famine Early Warning Network (FEWS NET)

In their latest (October 2024) report, the Famine Early Warning Network makes a number of alarming points:

"At a minimum, there is a persistent risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in multiple areas" including "Greater Darfur and in parts of South Kordofan; parts of North and West Darfur; and parts of Khartoum"
Aid delivery is far below the required levels: "Only 141 aid trucks have crossed at the Adre border from Chad into West Darfur since it reopened on August 15, carrying over 4,000 metric tons of supplies for an estimated 532,000 people. According to OCHA, only two trucks crossed the Tine border crossing between Chad and North Darfur in September, but 18 trucks are 'preparing to cross' as of October 1."
Prices have risen in many places to where the poor are unable to acquire sufficient food. They cite one (extreme) example of Kadugli, where "prices in September are 500 percent higher than the same time last year and over 900 percent above the pre-war period (March 2023)."
The prospects for famine in the coming year might also be bleak, because "Cultivation for the 2024 agricultural season has been significantly disrupted for the second consecutive year by the ongoing conflict and associated massive displacement; lack of access to, scarcity of, and high cost of inputs; and disruptions to the banking system."

Clingendael Institute Famine projections:

Sudan: From hunger to death predicted there could be 2.5 million excess deaths in Sudan due to famine, and note the problem is not just acute hunger but the cumulative effect of prolonged hunger.
From Catastrophe to Famine: Immediate action needed in Sudan to contain mass starvation Anette Hoffmann provides an in-depth look in February 2024 starting from the roots of the hunger problem in the pre-conflict era.

MSF and Zamzam Camp

Doctors Without Borders (MSF) has repeatedly been blocked by both sides from providing aid to populations in need. They announced October 10th that they had to reduce their services in the critical ZamZam camp (where 2,900 children are suffering from severe acute malnutrition), due to the inability to get supplies in. In a recent interview with FRANCE 24 English, Claire San Filippo, MSF Emergency Coordinator for Sudan. noted that the UN "has managed to bring 200 trucks from Chad since August 15th, which is about three trucks per day. We need at least 13 trucks per day to feed Zamzam Camp."

Modeling famine

For more information about our own work on modeling famine, see our Github repository, and a series of Substack posts on the resource-scarcity approach to modeling famine: